Estimating and projecting the population living with dementia at the local area scale in Australia

Abstract

As Australia’s population ages, the number of people living with dementia will grow considerably. Understanding local changes in the number of people living with dementia will facilitate suitable planning, costing, and service delivery for health and aged care services. To inform this task, this study presents estimates and projections from 2021 to 2036 of Australians living with dementia at the state and territory level, and at the finer regional SA3 level. Estimates and projections were prepared for 3 scenarios: where dementia prevalence rates by age, sex, and SA3 area (1) remain fixed (Constant Prevalence), (2) decrease exponentially by 1% per year (Decreasing Prevalence), or (3) increase..